In July 2021, the European Commission published the “Fit For 55” legislative package, which defines measures for achieving the stricter European climate targets of -55% by 2030. Furthermore, we consider the targets of the coalition agreement of November 2021 regarding the expansion of renewables to 80% of gross electricity demand in 2030.
In the model-based analysis, the effects of meeting and missing these targets on the German electricity market are discussed. We analyse the effect on EU ETS prices, the power plant fleet, electricity generation, greenhouse gas emissions and electricity prices. An overachievement of the sectoral climate target in the energy sector by 20 Mt CO2 eq. could be accomplished if the stricter EU climate targets as well as the fulfilment of targets in the coalition agreement are achieved. A market-driven coal phase-out would take place by 2035.
