“Big 5: Comparison of climate neutrality studies

The dena lead study “Aufbruch Klimaneutralität”, published in October 2021, outlines a comprehensive scenario for a climate-neutral energy system in Germany by 2045. The EWI played a major role in this as the main expert and was responsible in particular for the modelling of the transport, industry and energy sectors. In addition to the dena lead study, there are four other major studies on climate neutrality:

• “Climate Neutral Germany 2045”, published by Stiftung Klimaneutralität, Agora Energiewende and Agora Verkehrswende,
• “Climate Paths 2.0”, published by the Federation of German Industries (BDI),
• the “Long-term scenarios for the transformation of the energy system in Germany 3”, published by the Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK), and
• “Germany on the Road to Climate Neutrality” from the Ariadne research project.

The institutions involved in these five studies have published a joint analysis in which the central results of the different scenarios are contrasted and compared. The comparison makes clear that, in detail, different paths can lead to the goal of climate neutrality.

At the same time, the central pillars of a climate-neutral energy system emerge consistently across the studies. These are, in particular, a significant increase in energy efficiency, electrification in final consumption, the increased use of renewable energies and the use of hydrogen and hydrogen derivatives. Furthermore, the comparison shows that technical and natural sinks play a role for climate neutrality in all studies.