Various climate neutrality scenarios identify hydrogen as an important energy carrier for achieving climate neutrality in Germany. Depending on the scenario, the demand of the sectors and the regional distribution differs. The EWI has therefore investigated the extent to which the approved hydrogen core network can cover regionally distributed hydrogen demand. Depending on the demand scenario, more than three quarters of regional hydrogen demand by 2045 could occur in districts that could have a good connection to the hydrogen core network. However, depending on the scenario, around one-sixth of the demand could arise in districts that are not connected to the hydrogen core network and would therefore be dependent on local hydrogen production.
This is shown by the research report “Regionalization of Hydrogen Scenarios – A comparative analysis of demand, infrastructure and supply”, which was written by a team from the Institute of Energy Economics (EWI) at the University of Cologne and supported by the Förderinitiative Wasserstoff der Gesellschaft zur Förderung des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts an der Universität zu Köln e.V..
The regional distribution of future hydrogen demand in Germany depends heavily on the application. For industrial processes such as steel production and refineries, demand could be concentrated in a few regions with high shares. In contrast, hydrogen demand from the transport and heating sectors could be distributed across many regions. For this reason, the EMI has determined separate distribution keys for different sectors and industries in this report, which estimate the region’s share of the total hydrogen demand in this industry. Depending on the sector, the distribution keys are based on existing industrial locations or demographic data such as population density and the number of registered vehicles.
Existing energy system studies estimate future hydrogen demand very differently. In this brief study, three scenarios were examined that show a hydrogen demand of between 230 TWh and 840 TWh in 2045. In the scenario with the lowest demand, hydrogen demand is concentrated in the industry and electricity sectors (long-term scenarios (LFS) III). In the other two scenarios examined (based on the dena Leitstudie Aufbruch Klimaneutralität (DENA) and the National Hydrogen Council (NWR)), significant demand is assumed in all sectors. As the heating and transport sectors could have more widespread demand, the total demand in these scenarios may also be distributed across German.
If we compare the scenario-based demand with the planned hydrogen core network, the majority of demand is in districts that could be well connected to the core network. In 2030, depending on the scenario, 4 to 13 percent of demand could occur in regions that have no connection to the core grid in the planned final expansion state. In 2045, this share could rise to up to 18 percent if hydrogen is also used in the heating and transport sectors. “However, it should be noted that, depending on the size of the district, there could be a significant distance between the core grid and demand,” says Dr.-Ing. Ann-Kathrin Klaas, who authored the short study together with Merit Dressler, Lisa Restel and Felix Schäfer.
There are currently plans to build more than 10 GW of electrolysis capacity in Germany by 2030. This is shown by earlier analyses by the EWI as part of the H2-Bilanz. Depending on capacity utilization, these electrolyzers could produce between 14 and 28 TWh of hydrogen per year. However, 85 percent of production is planned in districts that could have a very good connection to the core grid. Based on the assumptions made, only around 1 percent of hydrogen would be produced in districts that would not have access to the core grid in the current planning. This would only meet less than 1 percent of the scenario-based demand in these regions. “There is currently no connection between future decentralized production and decentralized demand for hydrogen. Locating electrolyzers in a way that serves the system could strengthen the development of local hydrogen clusters and avoid widespread infrastructure expansion,” says Dr. Ann-Kathrin Klaas.
