Against the background of the war in Ukraine, a possible complete shutdown of gas supplies from Russia, either triggered by the European Union or by the Russian side, has become the focus of public and political interest. The objective of this brief analysis is to quantify the potential supply gap over the course of the year (summer 2022 and winter 2022/23) in a rough manner, i.e., without explicitly modeling gas flows. It becomes clear that security of supply in the coming winter can only be achieved by an immediate and permanent reduction in demand compared to the previous year’s level.
