The analysis “Illustrative Development Pathways of the Building and Heating Stock – scenario-based analysis up to 2044” examines the development of the building and heating stock in the residential sector up to the year 2044. The analysis provides an overview of the current state of buildings and heating systems and contextualizes the short-term developments observed since 2023. Building on this, the analysis illustrates the potential long-term development of the building and heating stock based on selected scenarios. These scenarios are aligned with the German government’s targets for district heating connections and heat pump adoption.
The examination of short-term trends shows that 2023 was characterized by special and anticipatory effects. In reality, around 450,000 more heating systems were sold in 2023 than would have been expected based on the model calculations. In the long term, many oil and gas heating systems could still be in use by 2044. Assuming replacement rates remain consistent with past trends, oil and gas heating systems could account for approximately 30% of the heating stock in 2044. In the scenarios considered, this results in a final energy demand of 22–28 TWh for heating oil and 90–105 TWh for methane in 2044. To achieve net greenhouse gas neutrality from 2045 onward, the remaining oil and gas heating systems would need to be operated with biogenic or synthetic fuels.
