The study analyses the effects of future price volatility on the profitability of flexibility technologies in the day-ahead and intraday market. Due to structural changes – in particular an increasing share of renewable energies and the decline in flexible power plant capacities – model analyses for the year 2035 show a significant increase in volatility in the electricity markets. This could improve the revenue opportunities for flexibility options such as battery storage, flexible loads or electrolysers, as increased price fluctuations create arbitrage potential. At the same time, the lower general price level in combination with a higher number of extreme prices leads to changed economic conditions for investments in flexibility. The sensitivity analyses examined in the study show that lower demand or a reduction in the expansion of controllable power plants could further increase volatility, while a reduction in PV expansion could dampen it. These developments have a direct impact on market players whose business models are increasingly dependent on the dynamics of the short-term electricity markets.
