The research report, “The financing gap in the hydrogen market ramp-up: analysis of demand and price scenarios,” assesses the economic viability of the potential use of low-carbon hydrogen based on the hydrogen demand projections of German climate neutrality scenarios. For applications where conventional, fossil-based processes are cheaper than hydrogen-based ones, a market-driven adoption is improbable. If the use of hydrogen is to be promoted nonetheless, a need for additional financing may arise. For each of these applications, a rough break-even analysis is used to determine the hydrogen price at which the use of the new energy source is economically more profitable than the use of conventional energy sources. CO2 prices, tolls, taxes and the greenhouse gas reduction quota are also taken into account.
The research report shows that the break-even prices for hydrogen are below the currently assumed future market prices for hydrogen for almost all applications and years considered. Multiplied by the hydrogen demand assumed in the demand scenarios, this results in a projected financing gap. The financing gap is calculated for a total of nine different price scenarios and in a medium simulation is 2-10 billion euros for the model year 2030 and 30-100 billion euros for the model year 2045. The research report shows that rising prices for fossil fuels and CO2 emissions increase the break-even price and thus reduce the financing gap. But the unknown future hydrogen price has the greatest influence on the size of the financing gap.
