If demand for natural gas continues to fall, the natural gas market in Germany could react flexibly to disruptions in natural gas supply in the medium term. This is the conclusion reached by the EWI in a comprehensive modeling of possible disruptions to the European gas market. Although there would be some sharp price increases in the short term, in all scenarios considered, the market would recover and largely return to pre-crisis levels over the 10-year period. The modeled risks include both pipeline outages and a shortage of liquefied natural gas (LNG).
This is shown in the report “Analysis of the resilience of natural gas supply”, which a team from the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI), together with the auditing and consulting firm PwC, Prognos and the German Energy Agency (dena), prepared on behalf of the German Federal Ministry of Economics and Climate Protection (BMWK). The EWI used the COLUMBUS and TIGER models to examine the global gas market and the European gas infrastructure in seven scenarios and additional sensitivities.
