To study the power system’s response to cold spells in 2030, EWI and E-CUBE define three electricity demand scenarios based on TSO scenarios and national energy policy objectives for North-West Europe and then analyze the occurrence of supply-demand gaps under TYNDP 2020-like supply scenarios. Our results show that by 2030, the risk of supply-demand gaps at peak time under cold temperatures increases. These results are especially driven by the assumed increased role of heat pumps. There is significant uncertainty concerning the performance of heat pumps and the composition of the future fleet. We identify the potential demand-supply gap as an important coordination challenge for the European energy transition. The study was commissioned by ENGIE.
