According to § 74 of the German Renewable Energy Act (EEG), the four German transmission system operators are required to publish a forecast of the development of renewable energy systems for the next five years. This forecast is considered a key planning document for EEG financing, outlining scenarios for the future development of installed capacities, generation volumes, and EEG subsidies. In addition to providing insights into the historical and projected development of individual renewable energy sources, the report also extensively details the performed modeling of the European power system.
For the year 2025, the volume of EEG subsidies could rise to around €18.2 billion due to the expansion of new subsidized plants (compared to €17.3 billion in 2023). In the trend scenario, renewable energy generation capacities in Germany are expected to double by the end of 2029 compared to 2023, reaching approximately 311 GW. By 2029, these plants could generate around 380 TWh of electricity under normal weather conditions, with EEG subsidies growing to nearly €23 billion over the same period.
The analysis was conducted using the EWI electricity market model DIMENSION, which allows for comprehensive modeling of the European electricity market.
The complete medium-term forecast can be found as well on the joint homepage of the transmission system operators https://www.netztransparenz.de.
